{"id":7927,"date":"2020-06-24T10:54:00","date_gmt":"2020-06-24T10:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.grupoparadell.com\/?p=7927"},"modified":"2020-07-02T19:58:22","modified_gmt":"2020-07-02T19:58:22","slug":"el-futuro-ma-post-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.grupoparadell.com\/en\/el-futuro-ma-post-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"El futuro M&A post COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"

Autor: David Sanrom\u00e0 (Managing Director of Corporate Intelligence en Grupo Paradell)<\/em><\/p>\n

En 2020 proseguir\u00e1n los procesos de M&A y continuar\u00e1n a pleno tren en 2021.<\/p>\n

Especialmente se prev\u00e9 que surgir\u00e1n con fuerza las oportunidades de compra de unidades productivas en pre- concurso<\/strong>, como ocurriera en la fase final de la crisis del 2008, pero esta vez desde su inicio.  Operaciones que ser\u00e1 conveniente acelerarlas para poder ejecutarlas antes de que el deterioro de la empresa sea velozmente irreparable, siendo aconsejable la presentaci\u00f3n de una oferta de compra junto a la propia solicitud de concurso. La estrategia y el soporte de inteligencia t\u00e1ctica debe ordenarse conforme a la naturaleza de estas operaciones que difiere de una operaci\u00f3n de M&A tradicional. <\/p>\n

Entre tanto no cesar\u00e1n los conflictos de socios y de ellos surgir\u00e1n nuevas operaciones corporativas. Conocer el posicionamiento de dichos socios es una informaci\u00f3n relevante.<\/p>\n

Respecto a los procesos mismos ser\u00e1n, inevitablemente, m\u00e1s lentos dado que se reducir\u00e1 la presencialidad y se incrementar\u00e1 el an\u00e1lisis, negociaci\u00f3n y documentaci\u00f3n en remoto aument\u00e1ndose as\u00ed el tiempo de proceso y con ellos los riesgos asociados a la firma y al closing. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Las due diligences deber\u00e1n incluir nuevos puntos de vista en su an\u00e1lisis de riesgos, con especial atenci\u00f3n a cuestiones como las persona, sus riesgos, perfilados sicol\u00f3gicos, riesgos internos, protecci\u00f3n de datos, ciberseguridad y su ejecuci\u00f3n telem\u00e1tica en aquello que sea posible.<\/p>\n

El mundo empresarial ya asume la relatividad, al menos a medio plazo asume la utilidad relativa de datos y proyecciones de las empresas tras el COVID-19, cuando no del propio negocio lo que va a requerir adaptar dos cosas: los modelos de valoraci\u00f3n de negocio no solo a la nueva realidad y la asunci\u00f3n de riegos y barreras hasta ahora no considerados muy ligados a las operaciones del negocio en muchos casos sea f\u00edsica o digital. Un an\u00e1lisis de inteligencia t\u00e1ctica y econ\u00f3mica de estos nuevos factores va a incorporarse al tradicional due dilligence.<\/p>\n

Asimismo, y por lo anteriormente expuesto, habr\u00e1 una tendencia a incluir mecanismos de earn-out en el precio y que van a estar ligados tanto a la del negocio como a factores tanto humanos y operacionales muy concretos que hay que tener muy claros a la hora de la negociaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

En la mayor\u00eda de los casos, la parte compradora tendr\u00e1 una posici\u00f3n de negociaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s fuerte que la parte vendedora. Esto conllevar\u00e1 un efecto importante, y es que el contenido habitual de las manifestaciones y garant\u00edas del vendedor va a adaptarse a los riesgos derivados de la situaci\u00f3n generada por el COVID-19 y a las decisiones y performance del negocio durante este periodo. Analizar los distintos escenarios operacionales y su prolongaci\u00f3n en el tiempo va a ser imprescindible y por ello el desarrollo de un estudio de inteligencia t\u00e1ctica y prospectiva.<\/p>\n

Este vector de inteligencia ser\u00e1 la base de una m\u00e1s que probable inflaci\u00f3n del recurso a los seguros de W&I como soluci\u00f3n eficaz en la transferencia de riesgos para las compa\u00f1\u00edas de seguros y para los compradores. Precisamente en el \u00e1mbito de los riesgos en estas operaciones se extender\u00e1 el uso de la denominada cl\u00e1usula MAC y habr\u00e1 un retroceso en la utilizaci\u00f3n de pactos de locked box o en los tresholds usados.<\/p>\n

Finalmente ser\u00eda prudente desjudicializar los conflictos post adquisici\u00f3n y los de socios, y tratar de resolverles mediante el arbitraje o mediaci\u00f3n, dado el colapso de la justicia que se espera. Conocer y documentar  una fase precontenciosa va a ser una tarea importante.<\/p>\n

En todo caso, toda esta nueva realidad en materia de M&A van a conllevar para el comprador extender el due dillgence tradicional a los nuevos aspectos claves antes mencionados sea para una mejor previsi\u00f3n de las cl\u00e1usulas MAC, earn- out o de arbitraje y tambi\u00e9n un an\u00e1lisis prospectivo del escenario actual del negocio. Particularmente importante ser\u00e1 para las evaluaciones y contraevaluaciones, la perspectiva que provee la disciplina de Inteligencia Econ\u00f3mica por su approach sist\u00e9mico de an\u00e1lisis de impactos cruzados entre factores casi siempre soterrados, detectando as\u00ed el valor real de los factores claves de \u00e9xito y las ventajas competitivas a futuro porque es capaz de prever de manera fiable el comportamiento del mercado y del impacto de la competencia en la demanda.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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